Last week, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates for the first time in over four years, signaling a potential uplift for stocks and Wall Street. But what does it mean for the backbone of America, our small businesses?
A new CNBC|SurveyMonkey study fielded just before the Fed announced its first rate cut, which was anticipated — though the exact size of the cut was not — offers a glimpse into the minds of these entrepreneurs. The quarterly snapshot of Main Street businesses reveals a mixed bag of cautious optimism alongside lingering concerns about inflation and rising costs. With a divisive presidential election on the horizon, the uncertainty is palpable.
Four in ten (38%) agreed that inflation continues to be the biggest risk to their business. This is nearly three times higher than the next highest risks, consumer demand (13%) and interest rates (10%).
Nonetheless, the anticipated interest rate cuts also sparked a surge in confidence. A third (33%) of respondents believed that inflation had peaked, and overall optimism for inflation relief is the highest since the first quarter of this year.
Three in five (62%) small business owners expected some degree of impact on the business from the recent interest rate cuts, with 22% expecting a major impact, and 41% a minor impact. These cuts are fueling action among small business owners: 40% intended to increase investments, 37% planned to expand their business, and 26% said they would stock up on inventory. Only one in five planned on increasing employee wages or benefits (20%) or hiring more employees (17%).
Kickstarted by the Fed’s recent decision, there is evident hope for stability as the economy seems poised to take a big step in a positive direction. For borrowers eager to take advantage of cheaper borrowing costs, this move could provide the boost they have been waiting for.
Ahead of November, business leaders on both sides of the political spectrum are largely voting along party lines, with Democrats and Republicans sticking to their party choices.
However, one interesting divide emerged in the survey. Republican small business owners preferred Joe Biden to Kamala Harris. Half of Republican small business owners (53%) favored Biden over Harris as the Democratic candidate, potentially showing a divide in how different candidates’ economic policies resonate with Main Street — or possibly an expectation that Biden would be easier for Trump to defeat in the election.
Meanwhile, Democratic business owners overwhelmingly stand behind Harris. Nine in ten (90%) of these owners support Harris as the Democrat candidate, revealing the stark political polarization that exists in this community.
Our study revealed a notable lack of enthusiasm for vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance on both sides of the political aisle.
Nearly four in ten (37%) small business owners thought that Vance would have a positive impact on their business, 13 points lower than Donald Trump (50%) but still higher than the Democratic vice presidential pick Walz (29%). Although both candidates saw majority support among small business owners from their respective parties (68% for Vance among Republican small business owners, and 67% for Walz among Democrat small business owners), presidential candidates generated stronger support within their respective parties (89% for Trump and 79% for Harris).
The CNBC|SurveyMonkey study affirms that businesses are cautiously optimistic as they continue to navigate the crosswinds of this uncertain landscape. While interest rate cuts are driving optimism and owners plan to reinvest their business in various ways, it will be imperative to continue to monitor and analyze this group as election season heats up.
— By Eric Johnson, CEO, SurveyMonkey